International Affairs Desk

Part 2

In their June 11^th discussion on FoxBusiness, both Walid Phares and Stephen Schwartz may have been key targets in a long-frame con. 

The Global Engagement Directorate of the White House, it seems, is in the driver’s seat of a vast deception. 

There is a difference between reacting and responding to a situation; and, following two days of frontline analysis, the overwhelming facts which spoke to a nearly inevitable Hamas link in the money train begged an official reply from Foundation for the Defense of Democracies and the Center for Islamic Pluralism.

Continue reading ‘Fear and Loathing in Gaza: SCF on the March’ »

Recently, I wrote an op-ed entitled “Slick Covers LOST” as a blog on RedCounty and as the initial launch of this blog.  The op-ed was revamped with the collaborative help of the VI staff, and the special editor focus and attention of Chris Carter, the Founder of The Victory Institute…and re-released as a featured Op-Ed on the VI website with the more apt title “Oil slick crisis sets stage for UN’s LOST treaty“.  Following the release of the feature, VI immediately received a letter of concern, correcting a vital error in the body of the text.

Below the break, I have placed a cropped version of the letter sent to VI, making sure to retain the anonymity of its author.  Following receipt of the letter, I crafted a response I felt worthy of the Victory Institute in terms of solidifying a principled position on the matter of Sovereignty.   Recently, Chris Carter had the opportunity to interview Cliff Kincaid of the respected AIM organization, who remains an outspoken American critic on the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea.  His responses have in effect, completed the words I was looking for in the original draft.  So, in the interest of solidifying a position, and in the interests of charity and independence – I have recrafted my response, with light edits which I hope will complete the VI position on encroachments to American Sovereignty.  In retrospect, I can only thank the concerned reader for her quick response – the providence of error, it would seem, may truly be one key source of the American Dream’s power.  Without the immediate clarification, my recent article “Paralyzing American Power” would not have been complete.

-GHJJ

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Continue reading ‘On Sovereignty: The Providence of Error’ »

Part 1

The decision by Stephen Schwartz and Walid Phares to appear on FoxBusiness this weekend to challenge the legality of the White House announcement of $400 million in assistance to the Palestinian people was remarkable on multiple levels.  True, a number of valid questions swirl around UN advocacy and NGO activity in the Hamas dominated Gaza strip; however, the call for congressional oversight and investigations, while warranted, may not be all that necessary in terms of the war of ideas. Outrage is not a substitute for clarity, at this stage of the game, even if completely justified. Americans, coming to grips with the new international order, must remain clear-eyed while digesting this twisted “world as it is”.

On May 27th, Economist Magazine telegraphed the Obama Administration’s decision to increase assistance to the Palestinians in a story entitled “Hamas Versus the United Nations“. The piece describes the battle for scarce resources in Gaza, in which UNRWA’s local director, John Ging, is reaching out to ply the hearts and minds of an increasingly Taliban-like, one-party regime. According to the piece, John is on thin ice with the hard core elements of Hamas, due to the UN’s summer beach camps of 2009 which drew some 200,000 students away from their Koran studies to swim in “moral corruption”. The sensational story describes 30 armed Hamas thugs in masks, torching a UN beach camp before leaving Mr. Ging a memento of three unfired bullets as a warning – an intimidation for allowing young boys and girls to frolic together on the beach.

In retrospect, while the story is more than believable, it is all theatre – it paints a picture of a modern day underground railroad, in which the UN is forced to smuggle $500 million into Gaza every year without allowing any of the cash to fall into Hamas hands. Propaganda enters stage left as the article relates that the “UNRWA has introduced human-rights courses into its school syllabus, seemingly elevating the UN Charter over Islamic law” and even places a picture of Yasser Arafat at the Ann Frank Museum in one of its textbooks to “describe the Holocaust and Jewish suffering”, all…to satisfy Western aid-givers.

To dramatize the rift between the terrorists and the UN, an unnamed UNRWA staffer feigns, “Any hint of co-operation with Hamas[,] and half our funding would go up in smoke.” The goal of the NGOs in Gaza, after all, is to keep the flame of pluralism alive.

The alarmed can rest assured; Reason, itself, is in complete agreement with Walid Phares and Stephen Schwartz.  But, the fact is, deception is the primary methodology of a jihadist enterprise.

In all probability, the story happened exactly as written.  But, a staged episode is not outside the deceits of Hamas leaders, the self-same Islamist comprachicos of the mind that have made manipulating Western media outlets into an art form.

All is perception in the war of ideas; and, in this long-frame, the intimidation serves as a win-win. Both the UN and Hamas rise to their full moral heights in the public eye…all while the money train gathers steam in DC and slides into a Memorial Weekend tunnel.

Intriguingly, the very day this anonymous* story was released, President Obama was fielding questions about the Gulf oil spill in his first press conference since July of 2009. At the same time, Hillary Clinton was announcing the release of the 2010 National Security Strategy, which institutionalized the softening of U.S. rhetoric in its confrontation with al Qaeda-styled terrorists, officially removing the term “jihadists” from its lexicon and nixing the “Global War on Terror”, while boldly sallying forth to reclaim America’s lead role in shaping the “international order”.

Deaf, dumb and blind, the American people had no idea that a punishing juggernaut of engagement would soon scream into view.

For, alone and despairing in the smoldering remains of innocence, the fallen Mr. Ging “called on the outside world to send boats to break the siege and to preserve his beachhead of foreign influence”. 

A hate-filled ideology wasn’t to blame for Hamas’ decision to pursue gangland violence and intimidation, no – the Israeli blockade, in the cracked rationale of Mr. Ging, was the villainous source of all fear and loathing in Gaza.   

*All Economist Magazine stories are anonymously written, so as not to allow a writer’s name or reputation to color the perception of the audience as the content of the stories are consumed.

_____________________________

Gary H. Johnson, Jr. is a freelance writer based in Georgia, USA and is the Senior Advisor for International Security Affairs at the Victory Institute. 

In April, Carl Forsberg, who is quickly rising as the top Afghanistan analyst in America, released a report on the powerbroker realities of Kandahar.  The report is a relatively complete picture of the Karzai Dynasty in this volatile corner of Afghanistan. 

Kandahar is the traditional birthplace of the Afghan Taliban and it sits at the crossroads of Taliban infiltration, smuggling, intimidation, and guerilla activity.  Operation Moshtarek, which is still focusing its neo-COIN doctrine’s shaping mission in Helmand, was supposed to be wrapped up with a bow by Spring’s end. 

But as Summer approaches, the slow steps and ineffectual “government in a box” theory of General McChrystal has given way to concerns over its perceptions in the western media as a bleeding ulcer, and ultimately to an admission that the operations have slowed.  Moshtarek’s stall gives heart and conviction to Taliban propagandists who are announcing to the villagers that the July 2011 drawdown is near and the Taliban will prevail. 

Worse, the peace jirga was a failure.  The initial shura council, which included some 1,600 village elders and some loosely affiliated adhoc Taliban representation has not yielded a “flipped Taliban” as Western scholars opined it would, lending heaviness to the shoulders of the COIN community in America which considers a political solution the only real option for peace.  Besides the suicide bomber attack on the Peace Jirga’s first day, the most distressing reality of the situation on the ground those three days was the realization that Secretary Clinton “hoped” America would be kept informed.  This state department admission acknowledged that Westerners were not privy to the three day summit…and that Karzai was alone in his push toward a reconciliation effort  – one can only assume he had access to the reconciliation and reintegration piggy bank, though.

Currently, Operation Cooperation is proceeding in Kandahar.  Initially painted as a D-day type situation, the coalition leadership, upon recognizing the recede-resurge methodology of the Taliban in the Marja offensive, have chosen to implement a ”rising tide of security” as it shapes the political environment.  Originally scheduled to be well on the road to victory by Summer, the shaping and security effort in Kandahar are still in their infancy. 

General McChrystal has conceded that as the summer progresses US casualties will increase, placing completion of the securitization process nearer to August and perhaps well into Fall, while skeptics paint a more pragmatic picture of an end of the year scenario.  Regardless of the end date of the shape and secure part of the effort, though, what is important at this stage of the game is to understand the political picture in Kandahar…since that is what NATO’s leaders are attempting to shape.

Key in the political reality of Kandahar is Ahmed Wali Karzai and the Private Security Companies that Forsberg and Kagan discussed in their recent May release, discussed in earlier blog posts at the ISA desk.  It is apparent that the Karzai dynastic claims on control in Kandahar are advancing through a consolidation of PSCs, who are growing wealthy on DoD contracts to provide security for American and NATO freight through the Chaman Corridor.  The dynastic web expands and the picture becomes clear in the ISW report “Politics and Power in Kandahar”.

Below the break, I will post my personal notes regarding the Forsberg April report.  I cannot stress enough the importance of an active mind in the pursuit of understanding the enemy our soldiers are fighting every day in Afghanistan.  Knowing the terrain is a key to victory in any battle.  There are 34 provinces, over 350 districts, the names are hard to understand, the locations of cities on maps are hard to visualize.  Taking notes, actively involving your fingers and mind into the process is the key to joining, in full spirirt, the American soldier in harm’s way.  I encourage those who are following in my footsteps to take notes and begin the process of profiling cities, villages, regions, developments, organizations, diplomats abroad and at home to gather a sense of the human and physical terrain.  Recognize that the road to victory in Afghanistan begins with you, sitting in relative luxury in America with a world at your fingertips – we can build a chronicle of the living history as it unfolds and we can spot trends that our leaders may miss…I don’t say that as a utopian, I have done it myself in The AfPak Gazette – so, I know it can be done, but to efficiently and continuously produce it is the work of a team, not the work of one. 

The 2010 National Security Strategy states that America’s security is best when it is “informed” by its people.  Answering the call starts with following along…but when you are ready to pick up a pen and lead, contact the ISA desk.  I believe in solid pay for solid research. I am actively seeking others who are of the same mind and are willing, if necessary, to invent a new media to achieve this end.  Incentive is the fuel that drives the machine – this fuel is sorely lacking in today’s battlefield of the mind…and is the fundamental failing of the Western world’s desire to defeat al Qaeda and its minions.  Together, we can win this war of perceptions.  So, take a look at the executive summary of the 83 page PDF over at ISW and then take a look at my notes – outlining is an active pursuit of understanding and it is a critical step.  Breaking out readers from indexes is the next logical pursuit.  Regimenting and disciplining your mind to do this hard work is absolutely critical if you seek, in time, to achieve a break out performance.  Victory without truth is folly. 

-Gary H. Johnson, Jr.

Continue reading ‘Kandahar – ISW Report’ »

The following entry (beneath the break) is a “reader” regarding the Private Security Companies in Afghanistan, derived from the index in the Forsberg-Kagan ISW report. 

Many people have asked me why I have stopped working on United Against Islamic Supremacism, the AfPak Reader, and The AfPak Gazette web pages.  My answer is simple – each was an end in itself.  I was training myself to apply my active mind to the task of unraveling the mysteries of the world as it is, particularly as it relates to the war of ideas against Islamic Supremacy. 

In UAIS, I practiced grabbing pieces of information and following links – and uncovered Shariah Compliant Finance and its trail.  In the AfPak Reader, I honed the skills of a historian by building readers, to actively develop a methodology for studying and chronicling the living history we are all watching unfolding before our eyes every day, to gather a context, and found out for myself what our leaders really mean. 

Developing an active awareness requires determined dedication to your own reasoning mind’s development – in The AfPak Gazette, I took all of the lessons I had learned and applied them into a format that will rise again…in not too distant a future, as a business enterprise.  But as a forum and rally point for building a team of determined razors, the Victory Institute has no equal in its raw potential for success.

As you take in the rest of the post…realize, I pulled the entirety of it together in 5 hours.  Get ready to get PISSED OFF!  Once you realize what is going on, you will be as angry as I am.  This is Operation Checkmate, Subclass Castle.

Note – I believe in solid pay for solid research, so between each bout of search and grab, I have placed the “$$” symbol…this is because this work has value…and logging hours of effort is crucial.

Enjoy the reader…it is the companion break out for http://www.understandingwar.org/files/BackgrounderPSC_0.pdf

Continue reading ‘PSC Reader’ »

A number of Private Security Companies (PSCs) operate as contractors in Afghanistan.  Many of them have their own militias and, according to a number of sources, work hand in hand with the CIA and the US military…and often times as mercenary forces.

A recent Institute for the Study of War report entitled “Consolidating Private Security Companies in Southern Afghanistan” by Carl Forsberg and Kimberly Kagan have illuminated this shady world of commandos for hire and their operations, and shed light on the difficulties in partnering with national, provincial and local Afghan government officials in the attempt to bring security and stability to the Helmand and Kandahar regions as Operation Moshtarek stalls in the IED rich environment.

While the brother of Afghan President Hamid Karzai often dominates the discussions and accusations of Western circles, when identifying corruption in the front-line battle against the Taliban and al Qaeda, a lesser known cousin of the President may hold a larger key to understanding and unlocking the Kandahar maze of corruption. 

Ahmad Wali Popal, along with another Karzai cousin, Rashid Popal, own the PSC known as Watan Risk Management .  According to the Watan website, the PSC operates its main HQ out of Kabul, maintains a presence at Camp Bastion and Kandahar Airfield, plus has affiliate locations in Jalalabad, Herat and Mazar.    

Interestingly, another Karzai cousin, Hashmat Karzai leads up the PSC known as Asia Security Group.  Among the major client groups listed on the ASG website are the US Military, Major International NGOs, and various Large Construction & Infrastructure Companies throughout Afghanistan.

The Forsberg-Kagan piece notes that a large number of PSCs operate in southern Afghanistan, but “are ultimately controlled or influenced by a small number of powerbrokers”.  Perhaps the most dynastic among these powerbrokers is Ahmad Wali Karzai, who controls a number of other forces, his own private security detail, and the Kandahar Strike Force.  Rumors about Ahmad Wali Karzai’s dealings in the recent ballot stuffing during the Presidential election, the drug racket, land grabs and a host of other underhanded activities meet with a nest of clandestine claims of shadowy involvement with CIA hit squads. 

Ahmad Wali’s commander Seyid Jan Khakrezwal controls the Provincial Council Security Force, and another top commander, Akhtar Mohammad runs an Ayno Meno security outfit in Kandahar. 

Interestingly, the Watan Risk Management company subcontracts the security of Highway 1, which connects Kandahar to Kabul to the forces of Commander Ruhullah (the nephew of Khakrezwal).

According to Dexter Filkins of the New York Times, Commander Ruhullah runs a concern known as “Commando Security” which operates on the roads between Kandahar and Helmand.  In Filkins recent report, Rule of the Gun,  the contractors who are providing security to NATO supply lines are payed between $800 and $2500 per truck in their convoy escorts.  With hundreds of trucks per convoy, the ready cash allows the security companies to bribe the Taliban fighters who are threatening to attack the convoys.  According to the Filkins report “52 government-registered security companies, with 24,000 gunmen” operate in Afghanistan – yet most security outfits aren’t registered and do not obey the rules of engagement.  In Kandahar alone, 23 armed groups “are operating under virtually no government control”.

The Filkins NY Times article identifies a number of security outfits, with a focus on Compass Security, which together with Watan Risk Management may have aided the Taliban to guarantee their continued control of the road.  Filkins identifies the “$2.2 billion American contract called Host Nation Trucking” which supplies NATO and American forces by paying escort contingents.

Filkins also identifies Elite Security Services, owned by Siddiq Mujadeddi, the son of the Afghan Senate’s Speaker.  Recent evidence indicates that heavy competition for the escort contracts has possibly led some contractor outfits to pay Taliban forces to attack their competitor PSCs.

-Gary H. Johnson, Jr.

Note – And all of this was derived from Page 1 of the ISW report and a few clicks of a mouse.

An op-ed by: Gary H. Johnson, Jr.,

Senior Advisor for International Security Affairs at the Victory Institute

5/28/2010

Why has the Obama Administration’s efforts in the Gulf oil spill disaster been so lackluster?

Last November, White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel said, “Never let a serious crisis go to waste.” He qualified it of course, saying that you never want a crisis to occur, but if one does, then “it’s an opportunity to do things you couldn’t do before.”

President Obama and virtually every member of his cabinet has stated unequivocally that the US Federal Government has been on site and in charge of the clean-up operation since “Day 1″. Within the first two weeks of the Deepwater Horizon rig explosion, the President imposed a moratorium on deep sea drilling permits. Fending off criticism of incompetence and fecklessness, Obama has extended the permit moratorium from coast to coast for six months, suspending oil lease sales in Alaska and flat cancelling all lease sales in the Gulf of Mexico, until such time as the results of a presidential commission’s investigation into the situation could be reviewed.

With over 20,000 employees working around the clock, and countless miles of boom laid, with BP continually berated from all sides for its failure to “fill the damn hole”, with the Gulf of Mexico effectively poisoned for a generation, with countless square miles of precious bayou wetlands of Louisiana already witnessing the impact, and with fishing “disaster areas” declared across the Gulf states, it is safe to say that this national disaster qualifies as a “serious crisis”.

39 days and counting – the serious crisis is about to reach and surpass biblical proportions.

Turning on to C-span, the vitriol on the Hill is striking. Congressman on both sides of the isle are denouncing, as a paltry sum, the $75 million liability cap on clean-up operations, comparing the figure to the over $90 million single-day profits of the oil giant and shaking their heads in exasperation.

Officials at BP have claimed responsibility and have spent millions upon millions above and beyond their liability cap in a frantic drive to stem the flow of oil and garner a touch of PR sympathy as Senators and Congressman wag their fingers at the BP off-shore drilling safety practices, saying that the company will be forced to pay all legitimate claims of loss by the people and businesses of the Gulf.

Environmental protection advocates are beside themselves on how to respond. No one knows exactly how many millions of gallons of oil have leaked into the Gulf. Live cameras are filming the debacle as the memory of eleven lost souls falls to the sludge.

So, what possible good can come of this “serious crisis” for the Obama administration? What kind of things can they do now that they couldn’t do before?

Have you ever heard of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea?

As President Obama took questions in his first press conference since July on Thursday, May 27th, Secretary Clinton was speaking at the Brookings Institute about the release of the 2010 National Security Strategy.

Major news outlets on Thursday evening were mum on the 52-page report’s release as pundits analyzed the ins and outs of Obama’s nebulous answers. The NSS report was old news. The previous day, the Obama administration’s chief counterterrorism advisor John Brennan had already let the cat out of the bag – we were no longer fighting a delusional war against the tactic of terror, we were now fighting the concrete target of al Qaeda and its affiliates. When combined with Brennan’s commentary, Secretary Clinton’s steadfast focus on a “Smart Power” agenda providing “whole of government” solutions, utilizing the full breadth of the three pillars of US statecraft – Defense, Diplomacy and Development – promised a Muslim engagement-oriented NSS report filled with talk of transnational partnerships and pragmatic assessments.

Moreover, the majority of the press corps, locked into a deadline, didn’t have a chance to do any more than skim the National Security Strategy, much less have time to work-up a serious analysis. It was almost a certainty that no one would realize the importance of the phrase “International Order”, which was repeated over and over ad nauseum throughout the document, until long after the Memorial Day weekend.

American leadership, according to the text of the NSS, was challenged by the proposition of assuming a primary role in shaping the international order of an increasingly globalized horizon. Sustaining “broad cooperation on key global challenges” in the international order, by page 50, included working with partners to “safeguard the sea, air, and space domains from those who would deny access or use them for hostile purposes.” And then, a new sort of boom is lowered: “As one key effort in the sea domain, for example, we will pursue ratification of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.”

Did the media focus on President Obama’s handling of the Gulf slick cover over critical analysis of the national sovereignty issues at play in the 2010 National Security Strategy’s endorsement of LOST?

Could it be that the US Congress, in a frenzy to punish BP in the near term, harrying to punish the whole of the oil industry in the long frame were now, after countless purely partisan votes, in a position of bi-partisan support? Indeed, wasn’t the primary reason that President Reagan originally refused to sign onto LOST in 1982 was his concern over the deep-sea drilling issue?

During the confirmation hearing of Hillary Clinton, when Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska asked if pursuing ratification of the UN Convention on the Laws of the Sea will be figuring prominently in her agenda, the incoming Secretary of State responded “Yes, it will be, and it will be because it is long overdue, Senator. The Law of the Sea Treaty is supported by the Joint Chiefs of Staff, environmental, energy, and business interests. I have spoken with some of our — our naval leaders, and they consider themselves to be somewhat disadvantaged by our not having become a party to the Law of the Sea.”

In addition, last May, the Council on Foreign Relations released an 80 page report by Scott G. Borgerson, a “Visiting Fellow for Ocean Governance”, entitled The National Interest and the Law of the Sea which laid out the complete rationale for why National Sovereignty was somehow no longer an issue that America should concern itself over in the ratifying of the UN Convention – that assuming a leadership role in the Laws of the Sea would guarantee a powerful position of multilateral engagement for the Obama Administration.

Add to this momentum, the fact that a few months ago, with virtually zero notice in the main, Defense Secretary Robert Gates’ 2010 QDR endorsed the UN Convention on the Laws of the Sea.

When adding all of these factors, the equation produces a simple reality: the Obama Administration is committed to ratifying LOST without giving the American people ample opportunity to discuss the ramifications.

In this, the NSS concludes, with an appeal to bipartisan cooperation that is “at times lacking in our national security dialogue.” Appealing to the Cold War days, when American leaders differed on the means but shared common goals, the 2010 NSS urges a polarized Congress “to embrace our common purpose as Americans.”

So, in full, while the serious crisis in the Gulf may negatively effect the Obama administration’s favorability ratings, it has presented the White House with an opportunity to do what it wasn’t necessarily able to do before – pass LOST on a bi-partisan basis before the November mid-term election cycle begins.